Clergy Replacement Rate

Some recent posts have brought me to the question of how old OCSP clergy are, and how likely they are to be replaced on retirement from within the OCSP. I decided to concentrate on the pastors at the eight self-sustaining parishes, since these are the most visible and represent the posts that would be most desirable for seminarians. My regular correspondent very kindly provided this list after considerable research (I will be grateful for corrections):

Charles Hough IV 35
Lee Kenyon 38
Eric Bergman 45
Prentice Dean c58
Edward Meeks 68
William Holliday c55-60
David Ousley 65
Mark Lewis 56

If we consider the OCSP retirement age of 70 announced by Bp Lopes, we can see that Frs Meeks and Ousley will be due for retirement within five years, which would be the approximate period of formation for a new seminarian. Another three will be due within 12-15 years. My correspondent says, "Currently there are only four seminarians, two in pre-theology, i.e. about five or six years from ordination."

Bp Lopes appears to have good contacts among other bishops, which have allowed him to find placements for OCSP priests in diocesan parishes, as well as to reach into a diocese to fill the St Mary the Virgin vacancy. The question is, given the shortage of diocesan priests, how often he can go to the well of finding Pastoral Provision priests in dioceses.

It's worth pointing out that in 2012, there was a surplus of former Anglican priests wanting to go into the OCSP, which isn't surprising; many saw these as undemanding and prestigious jobs that could supplement their TEC pensions. The requirement that the next generation of OCSP priests must be celibate and undergo more extensive Catholic formation has changed things entirely.

In addition, there are more pastors in OCSP missions and groups who are in late middle age, and if the current pattern holds, those groups may well be disbanded when they retire. This raises questions for me about how long the OCSP can maintain even the numbers it has.