This brought me back to the question of how, or whether, Houston knows whart the figures are for actual membership anywhere. Could they in fact, if they chose, rebut assertions like the one made about San Diego County? I put this question to my regular correspondent:
St Augustine's, Del Mar has posted pictures of their 2017 Easter Day mass (there was no vigil, as you may recall) and at one point they are gathered outside around the Paschal fire and one can readily count the ten attendees (and two servers). I have to say that the school chapel they are using is considerably more attractive than the one in Pasadena. There is a Facebook notice that Bp Lopes will be visiting on July 9, with the request "It would be wonderful to have the church filled with all members of St Augustine's (active, inactive, attending other churches) and their guests for this special visit." I guess they are aware there has been conspicuous decline.There are other reasons to question the figures Bp Lopes gives. A full parish must have more than 100 individual members, for instance. This means that assuming eight full parishes, there are about 33 groups with fewer than 101 members. If we make the most optimistic assumption, that all of them have 100 members, this gives us 3300. It sounds as if Bp Lopes is allowing 2000 for the membership of Our Lady of the Atonement, which is the biggest full parish. This gives us 5300. (However, I've heard from a couple of OLA informants that, although all those registered there are eligible for OCSP membership, the cradle Catholics there are apparently unenthusiastic.)Two weeks ago an interview with Bp Lopes was aired on Catholic Café in which he apparently gives the figures of 10,000 "canonical" members and 20,000 mass attendees, whatever that means (ASA , or parish members including those ineligible for "canonical" membership?). I haven't listened to the interview, but Mr Murphy reported these figures on the AC blog. The membership figure Bp Lopes gave earlier this year was 8,000, so this sounds like that number plus OLA. I am skeptical. The 10,000 figure must include those who have registered with the OCSP while attending diocesan parishes. They are invisible except to Houston (although since membership requires registration with the Chancery, they must have an exact figure).
But the 20,000 are supposedly attending the 41 OCSP congregations which have regular Sunday masses. Based on my familiarity with bulletins, FB pages, and similar documentation this seems incredible. At least a third are holding a single Sunday mass in a venue which holds fewer than a hundred people, for example. I will keep you posted if more official updates become available.
Of the seven other full parishes, it's unlikely that more than one or two number as many as 1000, with most of them in the low three figures. Thus a slightly more realistic but still optimistic estimate might be 7-8000, but let's remember that this assumes each of the 33 non-parishes has 100 members. Considering the actual sizes we see, with photos showing attendance at some in low double digits, this is certainly not the case -- so realistically, OCSP membership is more likely what I've assumed throughout its history, somewhere in the low to mid four digits.
I invite any knowledgeable parties to correct or rebut this.
UPDATE: My regular correspondent reminds me, "Remember to distinguish between 'OCSP membership' ie eligible ex-Anglicans, family, etc and 'membership of OCSP parishes and communities' which can include any Catholic." However, even Bp Lopes in the interview cited above seems not entirely precise on this -- and indeed, even the qualifications for OCSP priestly ordination seem fuzzy in this regard. But also, for instance, if a dozen attended the Easter service at St Augustine's, were all of these canonical members of the OCSP, or does this mean that the actual membership there is fewer than a dozen?
