Reality Check

Thinking further about the e-mail I had last week giving the (utterly unauthorized but, given the silence of the Ordinary on the subject, credible) view that the St Mary of the Angels parish would be essentially abandoned by the Ordinariate, but that somehow a couple of newly minted Ordinariate priests could gin up a whole new group, I did a quick google.

The United States Census Bureau estimates the population of the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, California Combined Statistical Area as of July 1, 2008 as 17,775,984. The LA metro population is the country's second largest, following New York City (New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA).

Why, that's a huge potential market for ex-Anglicans who want to become Catholic, huh? They're probably storming the doors of the cathedrals as we speak! But wait -- the membership in good standing of St Mary of the Angels as of early 2012 was something like five or six dozen, only 80% of whom at best would become Catholics. I don't know precisely how many are attending the white people's parish down in Orange County led by Andrew Bartus, but, like most of the other Ordinariate parishes, it's mostly a glimmer in someone's eye, meeting between masses at an established Roman Rite church.

Exactly how many of 17,775,984 will ever be interested in the Ordinariate?

• The Ordinariate is specifically meant for disaffected Anglicans and Episcopalians who want to become Catholic. It's worth pointing out that the number of disaffected Episcopalians of any stripe has been wildly overestimated for decades.
• It isn't aimed at cradle Catholics, who are by far the largest group among the 17,775,984 (they may attend mass, but can't become members of an Ordinariate parish).
• It isn't aimed at the vast majority of non-Anglican Protestants.
• It isn't aimed at Anglicans and Episcopalians who are happy where they are -- and that includes gay or divorced-remarried Anglo-Catholics in The Episcopal Church.
• It isn't aimed at non-Christians or unbelievers.

So, of the 17,775,984 in the Ordinariate's LA market area, the actual potential membership is -- excluding the Orange County white people's group -- gee, I dunno, maybe five or six dozen, to wit, the folks who'd been attending St Mary's, less 20%, plus maybe a score who might be attracted to the parish as a going concern under the Ordinariate.

Where is the Ordinariate going to find all these new people to build a new parish, especially once it's chased the committed core people at St Mary's away? Someone might be able to convince me otherwise, but of course, of the conservative cradle Catholics like Charles Coulombe who might want to attend mass there, most, while welcome as visitors, would not, as non ex-Anglicans, be eligible for membership.

In other words, why are we doing this at all, in the second-largest US metropolitan area? And is the story much different anywhere else?