It's The Shutdowns

I don't believe any media, certainly not corporate, but even most YouTube commentators, has had a good handle on the US elections this year. I've commented here now and then that the COVID lockdowns are underrated as a factor motivating voter preference. My wife and I see day-to-day events that are hardly noticed by paid observers of any political persuasion -- barbers, hairdressers, maid services, facialists, and cosmetologists losing their businesses, month in and month out, for instance. This has an impact not only on the business owners themselves, but on those who must find alternatives.

Over the past weekend, some media outlets have begun to report on what they characterize as a "shift" toward Trump, or perhaps a final decision among "undecideds" for Trump. I'm skeptical that there was ever a "shift". Voters have had their minds made up since the lockdown goalposts began to be moved back in April -- remember when Dr Birx told us we'd be back to normal by Easter? Remember the rage in Los Angeles when the health director said we might need to lock down as long as Labor Day?

The issue began to crystalize only during the final presidential debate, where Vice President Biden made it clear that if elected, he would impose a national mask mandate (with federal mask enforcers?) and reimpose a stay-aa-home lockdown. On the other hand, President Trump has maintained a secondary campaign against Governors Cuomo, Whitmer, Wolf, and Newsom in all his rallies, taking swipes at them for their lockdown policies. None of them is on the ballot this cycle (which is not a coincidence), but Trump is correct in his instinct that resentment against them will drive the presidential and congressional votes.

A couple of pollsters have begun to take note. Yesterday on Fox's Sunday Morning Futures program, Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar predicted a major Trump win:

What we are seeing is a movement toward Trump with late breakers. [No, they've had their minds made up since May.] We are also seeing folks that had initially given every indication that they were going to support Biden or they were undecided moving toward Trump. And the issue we see moving on is the shutdowns. Even young people we’ve identified who don’t like the president. They like shutdowns even less. Even suburban women who said they have problems with the president, they like their children home and shutdowns even less.

On Saturday, Republican Rep Jim Jordan of Ohio told Jeanine Pirro tha Trump's margin of victory would be much greater than predicted by most pundits:

“I think the margin is going to be so strong — it’s going to be a no-doubter,” he said. “Remember, Americans understand this. They understand this election. In the end, it’s about freedom. Right? Look at what we’ve been through the last several months with Democrat governors and Democrat mayors telling Americans they couldn’t go to church, couldn’t go to work, couldn’t go to school, couldn’t go to a loved one’s funeral, but it was fine to protest, riot and loot.”

“Now, we’ve got Governor Newsom saying you can’t even have Thanksgiving the way you want to have Thanksgiving,” Jordan added. “And we’ve got Joe Biden talking about the Biden dark winter and locking down our economy. Americans appreciate the freedom we enjoy as American citizens. That’s what’s going to drive into the polls and why the President is going to win big.”

This brings me to the local puzzle in our own congressional district, California 28, which covers Glendale, Burbank, parts of Hollywood, and the eastern San Fernando Valley. It's quite heavily ethnic, with Latins, Filipinos, Armenians, Russians, and Jews, many of whom have lost their businesses in the lockdowns.

One thing I've noticed is that the Armenians began to attach Armenian flags to their cars during the renewed ocnflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. But as that conflict has cooled, the flags have stayed out. I've begun to realize these are actually Trump flags without saying Trump, which protects the cars from vandalism. The Armenians also bring Armenian flags to local Trump rallies, for what that's worth as well.

The incumbent congessman from the 28th district is Adam Schiff, who distinguished himself in the utterly unproductive impeachment controversy early this year. It remains to be seen how much resentment of COVID restrictions will drive local political races in ways that coporate media has so far not acknowledged.

I learn via Facebook that Beverly Hills police have already closed Rodeo Drive to traffic, and stores are boarding up in anticipation of riots Tuesday night.