Friday, August 15, 2014

The Numbers Don't Add Up

Something's been at the back of my mind since I began wondering how William Lancaster is being paid for his legal work on behalf of Mrs Bush and the ACA. Let's start with an estimate of what the case has cost each side to date. My wife, a retired corporate attorney with experience supervising lawsuits, estimates a cost anywhere between $250,000 and 750,000 for legal work on behalf of the ACA and Mrs Bush to date since mid-2012. This incudes the various legal actions consolidated into the single case that the California appeals court decided in July, as well as the civil action for "theft" against Fr Kelley. For now, we need only say that none of these is resolved, and a good deal of additional work is left to do, which the ACA will need to pay for.

Now let's look at the money available to the St Mary of the Angels parish. I have the numbers as of late 2011, since I was "probationary interim treasurer" at the time. Property rentals from the bank on the corner and after-hours rental of the parking lot amount to about $22,000 per month. Prior to seizure of the parish, the combination of cash offering, pledges, and hall rental for AA groups was about $6,500 per month. Since the ACA-Bush parish closed the premises to AA groups and attendance is presumably much lower, I am assuming that current income from these sources is negligible. So let's put annual income at $264,000.

In addition, as of late 2011, the parish had CDs worth about $225,000. It had a Dodge van, on which it still owed payments. I believe, although this wasn't included in treasurer's reports, that there was a safety deposit box that contained jewelry that had been bequeathed to the parish. I don't know its value. There were also numerous altarpieces, candlesticks, etc, of high value.

Now let's look at expenses exclusive of legal costs. I simply don't know what they're paying anyone now -- for instance, whether Frederick Rivers as "Rector" is being paid. I assume there is no longer a paid music director or choir. However, about $1200 per month was paid for gardening and cleaning, so I'll leave that as an expense, with the understanding that as of August 2014, there may be additional unknown payments to clergy (a supply priest goes for about $200 per Sunday, for instance).

Phone and utilities let's figure at $1600. Insurance let's figure at $2300. I don't know what the parish is paying the diocese and the ACA, but I assume it's something, or they wouldn't have seized the place. Let's figure $1500. Property and unemployment taxes, let's figure $500. Plumbing and electrical repair (it's an old building), $500, excluding emergencies, which, trust me, happen. Church supplies, termite inspection, copier lease, bottled water, organ maintenance, let's call it $700. The Dodge van has been missing for many moons, so leave out the payment, insurance, gas and expenses.

That brings us to $8300 to keep the empty building going. I don't know who's on the payroll as of August 2014, but as of September 1, they're bringing on a Pastor. So we've got a big uncertainty now, and a bigger one next month.

Subtract $8300 monthly expenses from $22,000 monthly income and you get $13,700 potentially available each month to pay legal bills for the period August 2012 to August 2014, assuming no plumbing emergencies, and assuming you aren't paying anyone else, including clergy. Multiply $13,700 by 24 months and you get $328,800. Match this against a middle-of-the-road estimate for legal work over the same period of $500,000. This leaves maybe $150,000 you've got to raise some other way, possibly by cashing CDs, selling the parish van (probably done), selling the jewelry, or selling the odd solid-gold monstrance.

But as of September 1, they're bringing in The Rt Rev Owen Rhys Williams, MFA to be their Pastor. He's moving from New Hampshire, so you've got his relo expenses to pay. I assume he isn't donating his services -- let's assume you're paying him $6000 per month -- but that leaves out his housing and car allowance. Non-trivial, but we can only guess at the amount. Plus, he's a bishop, so he's going to cost something for frequent travel, quite possibly borne by the parish, since half the diocese's parishes are missions.

It does seem though, that as of August 2014 the parish has probably run through any reserves it could have devoted to legal work to date -- but the legal work isn't done. In the short term, the parish either has to appeal the decision of the California appeals court sending the case back to trial, or it has to undertake the significant new expense of retrying the case. And it still has to go to court to recover the cost of the parish potluck leftovers that Fr Kelley and unnamed other John Does stole.

Where is this money going to come from? Let's say there's another year of legal work at least, or $250,000 -- but now there's only $5000 per month (if that) available to pay for it. We may assume that Mr Lancaster has his own monthly nut to make, so he's going to expect regular payments on his account -- or past a certain point, he won't be able to continue the work. Will Mrs Bush make up the difference? She's good for $30 a week, sorry.

Looking at the numbers, it's hard to avoid thinking the ACA and Mrs Bush were working a Plan B once they couldn't grab the parish in two weeks via the temporary restraining order in May 2012. So OK, they go to trial, they go to appeal, they'll win their appeal, of course, it'll all be wrapped up by August 2014, slam dunk, huh? So we can move Williams out there in September. But then also, the Kelley trial for the stolen potluck leftovers keeps getting moved back, so they've got to keep paying Lancaster on that one, too. I have a feeling they need a Plan C now, but I suspect they're in denial.

Should the ACA and Mrs Bush lose their cases, which is around a 50-50 probability, and if the Bush group sold valuable parish assets like jewelry or altar furnishings, Mrs Bush, an octogenarian, could wind up in a substantial legal tangle for theft, though she would not be the only party. Is the ACA seriously contemplating this outcome?

I have the impression that responsible parties at the ACA look in on this blog. Maybe they should take this post to heart. Someone -- Mr Lancaster or his legal factor -- may be coming after the ACA itself for serious money before long. And if the ACA loses its cases, that could be even more. A number of clerical observers have warned other ACA parishes that if the ACA could try to seize St Mary of the Angels, it could try to seize your parish, too -- and Fathers, wardens, vestrymen, if they need money, this means your parish.